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BrokerBeat: turbine deal flow runs ahead of 2025, turboprops lead

B R O K E R B E A TWhat's moving, what's sitting, and why. A monthly market read for brokers, from GlobalAir.comInaugural issue · July 2026A note from our CEO, Jeff CarrithersBeing a broker 30 years ago meant knocking on doors, long-distance calls (that you paid handsomely for), your Rolodex, fax machines and thumbing through the pages of Trade-A-Plane. You trusted your gut and read the tea leaves for a take on what the market was up to.There was no better way until a funny thing happened in the 1990s: the internet.In the early days, the industry treated it more as a novelty than a professional tool. But I saw things differently. We needed order, efficiency, and a central hub that wasn't made of paper. I saw a path to make it better: GlobalAir.com was founded in 1995. The listings became digital, and the private networks became accessible to all.Fast forward to today and while many of the tools we use have changed, the goal remains the same: a quest for market intelligence to give the savvy broker an edge. What's needed more than ever is an accurate read on what's selling, the speed and at what price. GlobalAir.com's treasure trove of sales data is the resource to answer those questions. And BrokerBeat, a monthly column dedicated to the broadcast and analysis of that data, is the format.GlobalAir.com's mission has always remained the same — a resource for brokers. And today we offer one more tool to help you do your job better.— Jeffrey A. CarrithersLook around and you probably have a sense of how the market is moving: deals are up, listings are converting faster and sellers are holding firm on price. But which ones and for how long? There's more to market intelligence than scanning the data. The soft signals matter too. The lines between segments are not always obvious, and knowing where they lie can be the difference between profit and loss. And on that note, let's decipher the data and listen to what brokers have to say to find out where the market's strength is located — and where it isn't. This year's turbine data has a story to tell. Segments are moving at vastly different speeds but the macro news is still good beyond the deal flow: withdrawals held flat year over year even as sales climbed, which typically is a positive sign of sales velocity. Momentum this spring has stepped down from winter highs (consistent with seasonal patterns), but the trend is still ahead of 2025.BrokerBeat Activity Index: the top of the deal flow funnelThe BrokerBeat Activity Index tracks turbine sales against a 2025 baseline of 100. The overall health of the macro market weighs on the micro markets. It's a good place to start. Sales over the past twelve months are up approximately 19% year over year. June lands a score of 97 — a seasonally quiet month still clears June 2025's reading of 62 comfortably. BrokerBeat Activity Index (sold), base 2025 = 100BROKER'S TAKE"While transaction pace may have slowed in late 2Q, which is typical as we roll into the ‘summer slowdown,' the combination of a very strong 4Q '25 plus 1Q and early 2Q '26 nearly decimated supply of late-vintage aircraft—in all segments. As a result, summer activity remains almost robust, setting the stage for what promises to be a very challenging 4Q."— Johnny Foster, President andamp; CEO, OGARAJETSConversion rate climbs to 73%For-sale listings that converted into a sale have climbed to a trailing-twelve-month 73%, up from 69.5% a year ago, and reached 77% in June. It's a single-month read, but one pointing in the right direction. The broker takeaway is simple: well-priced aircraft are still clearing, so there's no need to chase the market down. Conversion = sold ÷ genuine resolutions (sold + listings withdrawn)Where inquiries concentrate: twin turboprops leadInquiries are where our numbers hold a small surprise with twin turboprops on top. The BrokerBeat Inquiry Index shows twin turboprops in the lead at 138, with jets as the benchmark at 100 and single-engine turboprops at 63. Price is likely a strong lever as the older twin-turboprop and King Air segment is the most affordable entry into turbine ownership and attracts the most tire-kickers. The mirror image holds too: single-engine turboprops drew the fewest inquiries yet were the fastest sales. Sometimes a longer sitting listing can gather the most inquires. A reminder that interest and conversions are not the same thing.Months of supply: large-cabin jets are tightestBroken down into class, the tightest jet segment is large-cabin at 5.1 months of supply. Money appears to be no object as the priciest metal is also the fastest moving. Take one step down and we have a whiplash moment: super-midsize is the softest at 8.4 with light and midsize sit near seven. Among turboprops, single-engine inventory leads all turbine segments at 5.3 months; twins bring up the rear at 9.1.Within the single-engine turboprop category, the TBM, PC-12, and Meridian lead the pack on sold listings.Lower = tighter, faster-moving. Active listings ÷ trailing-twelve-month sold paceMonths of supply: large-cabin jets are tightestDays-on-market reinforces the data set: single-engine turboprop inventory sits the shortest with an 86-day median, jets sit mid-pack at 112 days, and twin turboprops lag with a considerable delta at 154 days.* Editor's note: a companion days-to-sell measure, tracking post date to actual sale, begins next month as the snapshot series matures. What sellers are asking (when they post a price)A quick caveat: Asking prices are diluted because often, there is no ask. For those that do, unsurprisingly, median asking climbs with size: about $2.4-$2.5M for light and midsize jets, $5.5M for super-midsize, and $9.7M for large-cabin, alongside single- and twin-turboprops at $2.7M and $1.5M. Data towards the top is thinnest as only 23% of large-cabin listings post a number against 39% of light jets.A closer look: jets aren't one marketOver the trailing twelve months, large-cabin jet sales rose 27% year over year and light jets 16%, while super-midsize slipped 3%. The segments are moving in distinctly different directions. Trailing twelve months vs. prior twelveBROKER'S TAKE"The large- and ultra-large-cabin aircraft are very much in demand—especially the nice, newer aircraft, which are very hard to find right now. I'm advising large-cabin sellers to be reasonable on price and not price the aircraft out of the current market."— Brad Harris, Founder, President andamp; CEO, Dallas Jet International Old fleets, young fleets: vintage drives inquiriesBy nature, single-engine turboprops are a younger fleet in aggregate compared to other categories, with a median model year of 2014 which makes it less of a market signal. The data is more telling in the mature markets of twin turboprops and jets. In both, the newest metal draws the most inquiries. A pre-1990 jets sit roughly twice as long as 2020-and-newer aircraft. Twin turboprops are the outlier and show no pattern by vintage. Which OEMs are clearing inventoryCessna leads on volume with the ubiquitous Citation at roughly 29% of the jets sold over the past year. Beyond the light and midsize market, Gulfstream and Bombardier are neck and neck at about 20% each. Along with Dassault, the big iron makers account for half of every jet sold. These three major OEMs cover about 70% of the market. And while Citations have the momentum, the pricing power belongs to the large-cabin metal. The market in context: FAA's 20-year turbine outlookCross-checking additional signals: the FAA's FY2025-2045 Aerospace Forecast projects the general-aviation turbine fleet growing about 2.1% a year, with jet flying hours, up 3.2% a year, leading the general-aviation segment. The piston fleet stays flat to declining. A twelve-month trend isn't enough of a dataset to confirm a twenty-year fleet forecast but the shift toward turbine is noteworthy. What to watch in Q3Single-engine turboprops stand out as the market to watch with plenty of upside indicators including a tight supply, fresh metal and quick turnarounds. Jets remain steady. The twin-turboprop's overall fleet age is likely a drag on results that should be noted. Items to be on the lookout for in Q3 are a conversion rate that holds above 70% along with non-sale withdrawals remaining contained. If sellers start withdrawing listings to wait out a better price, that's usually the canary in the coal mine for a retreating market.About this column: BrokerBeat covers the turbine market (jets and single/twin turboprops). Built from GlobalAir.com's own listing and removal data. The Activity Index is set to the full-year 2025 average = 100; absolute transaction counts are held internal. Conversion = sales ÷ genuine resolutions (sales + listings withdrawn for sale-market reasons: removed-from-market, owner-keeping, lost-listing); it excludes data-entry errors, listings delisted from GlobalAir but still for sale elsewhere, login lapses, removals with no reason given, leased aircraft, and buyer-side wanted-ad closures. Days-on-market, asking price, demand, and vintage are drawn from active turbine listings; months of supply uses the trailing-twelve-month sales pace. Brokerage activity is reported in aggregate. The Inquiry Index is set so jets = 100; absolute inquiry counts are held internal. Fleet context: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2025-2045.
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