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Business aviation growth projections look "fine", but looks can be deceiving. ARGUS puts global flight activity up 3.1% over May 2025, and WINGX had the year running 3.6% ahead of last year through June 7. Five months in, and we should call that a win. But there's a problem with those numbers. When you drill down deep, it appears that only one segment is doing most of the lifting.Where the growth actually lives
North America rose 2.1% in total, and fractional flying accounts for most of it, up a healthy 12.5% year over year. Part 135 charter is doing its part and managed 3.6%. Part 91, the owner-flown segment, fell 3.6% and was the only operational category to decline. That 16-point delta between fractional and owner flying is worth exploring.
The shift hits hardest at the top of the market: Large cabin activity fell 5.2% overall, yet within fractional fleets it jumped a whopping 18.4%, the biggest single increase ARGUS recorded. The takeaway is that demand for Gulfstream and Global-sized airplanes is being met by the share or charter hour instead of the delivery position.
Internationally, without the fractional scale available in North America, the flat to downside story remains similar. Europe saw 0.5% growth while South America and Asia posted modest gains. The Middle East is an outlier and fell 21.1%, which can be attributed to the regional conflict.
"May remains in positive territory but our growth rate is slowing," said Travis Kuhn, ARGUS senior vice president of software. "All signs point to a slower growth rate in June, but we do expect it to be a positive month for activity. The two biggest areas for concern are Part 91 and large cabin activity."
What to watch through Q3 and Q4
Two questions matter for the second half of the year, and May's data doesn't really offer us much guidance. The first is whether the Part 91 decline is noise (deferred trips, airplanes down for maintenance) or are owners actually flying less. One month is still a snapshot and can't settle that. A few more are needed.
The second is whether fractional's double-digit pace can carry through the summer. Eventually if these providers continue to absorb flight activity, their fleets should continue to grow as the Part 91 airframe demand continues to compress. All eyes are on this situation as it could turn into a zero-sum game.
Neither outcome is in the data yet, but June has already produced its first hint: ARGUS forecast the month as positive but slower. The first week's results somewhat agreed, with WINGX recording a 2.6% year-over-year contraction for June 1 through 7, the dip that pulled the year-to-date line down to 3.6%.
The honest read on May and June can still be seen as a positive. The industry is still incrementally growing, but it has stopped growing everywhere at once.