![]()
The business aviation market has exited the frenzy from where it was a year ago but, on this momentary plateau, many seek signals to know whether the ground ahead is steady or starting to slope down. One man's tea leaves are another man's smoke signals, and they both might be proven wrong by someone else's fortune cookie. Magic 8-balls say to ask again later while crystal balls remain hazy.
One benchmark to measure the health of the tarmacs of bizjets future is to look at the flight activity of bizjets now and compare it to the data from bizjets past.
The conclusion of the latest TRAQPak report from ARGUS Analytics is that global flight activity for private jets and turboprop aircraft remained stable in September despite a yearly decline. Looking ahead to the final quarter of the year, analysts for the company remain optimistic of a robust finish to 2023.
The drip from 2022 in the last month met forecasted expectations, with North America beating the forecast by a fraction of a percent as fractional activity performed robustly, and Europe landed right on the money.
Global flight activity recorded a 3.9% decrease compared to September 2022. Additionally, monthly activity worldwide was down 0.5% from August 2023.
"Overall, September went about as we expected which is neither good nor bad," said Travis Kuhn, vice president of market intelligence for ARGUS. "It's encouraging that the daily flight average increased from August to September. … We will watch Q4 closely in order to evaluate the health of our industry from an activity standpoint. We expect activity to be positive for the quarter which would certainly be an encouraging trend."
How the North American business aviation market fared in September 2023
The North American market reported a 4.2% decrease in flight activity from September 2022, closely aligned with the revised 4.5% decline forecasted for the month. This result indicates that the North American aviation sector is tracking as anticipated.
The operational categories yielded mixed results for the continent. Fractional activity stood out as the only positive segment, with a 9.2% year-over-year increase. In contrast, Part 91 activity exhibited weakness in mid-size cabin activity, finishing down 8.4%. Part 135 activity also saw a decrease of 4.1%, primarily attributed to sluggish performance in turboprops and small cabin aircraft. Within the aircraft categories, large cabin jets showed the most resilience, with a slight decrease of 0.2%. Mid-size cabin aircraft decreased by 3.0%, small cabin aircraft dropped by 4.6%, and the turboprop market experienced a substantial 7.2% decline.PREVIOUS STORY: August business aircraft flights dipped lower than predicted, still far ahead of pre-COVID numbers
Meanwhile, all four fractional segments showed growth. The fractional mid-size cabin market led the way with a notable 10.1% year-over-year increase.
From August to September business aviation flight activity showed an expected 0.5% decrease. This slight dip can largely be attributed to September having 30 days for activity, averaging 264 more flights per day than August.
Four of the eight FAA regions reported a monthly increase. The Southwest region saw the largest monthly gain, up 8.9%, while the Northeast region recorded the most significant decrease, down 16.9%.
How other markets fared in September 2023
Activity in Canada and the Caribbean collectively decreased by 10.5% month-over-month, reflecting a shift in flying patterns as northern regions slowed down following a busy summer travel period.
In Europe, flight activity followed its typical seasonal pattern, declining by 11.9% during September due to the transition from summer flying. However, the forecast suggests a more modest 3.6% decrease during October, indicating the stabilization of activity levels.
For October, ARGUS TRAQPak analysts estimate there will be a 0.4% increase in overall North American flight activity year over year in October 2023.