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With 2024 now wheels up, what can we expect to happen in the world of private aviation as we forge ahead into a new calendar year? We asked some notable people in the bizav industry to share their predictions and resolutions for the new year. Here is what they had to say.
Daniel Cheung of Aviation Tax Consultants said he sees nothing but optimism.
"My prediction is that our industry will continue to attract first-time buyers and with the economy improving, inflation and interest rates coming down, (and the) stock market expected to have a banner year, I can see 2024 to rival the boom years of 2021 and 2022," he told GlobalAir.com. "All those sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to correct, they will be tired of waiting and will go on a shopping spree."
He also noted that with it being an election year, if any tax legislation passes, it would be favorable for the industry.
AOPA President Mark Baker resolves to make it even safer to fly.
"Build upon our culture of safety and continue to make this the safest era ever for general aviation," he said.
Amanda Applegate of Soar Aviation Law plans to spend the coming year focused on future pilots.
"Spend more time encouraging the next generation to consider private aviation for their career," she said of her resolution. "Our industry is short-handed in so many areas. It is not just pilots and mechanics, but it is accountants, lawyers, logistics coordinators, line workers, customer service representatives and more. We need the next generation to fall in love with private aviation."
As for what she expects to happen in the industry, she said management companies and FBOs will continue to consolidate and that some companies formed during the boom that followed the pandemic could struggle to remain sustainable.
For his personal resolution, Alasdair Whyte of Corporate Jet Investor vows to eat healthier food and exercise, along with learning Portuguese. However, he said he was not confident about any of those.
If he were to make a resolution for the business aviation industry, it would be to keep investing in SAF and other new tech, while keeping existing customers satisfied while also looking for new ones.
"Unfortunately, a lot of the things that have caused problems in 2023 - supply chain issues, slow pre-purchase inspections, often due to supply chain issues and certification delays will continue in 2024," he told GlobalAir.com. "There will be a lot of talk about the presidential election, but this won't be the main driver of the market. We will also (see) more European owners buying replacement aircraft. Southeast Asia and India will be hot markets."
Travis Kuhn of ARGUS echoed those saying that the new year should resemble the past year, as long as the economy keeps pace.
"Looking at 2024, we expect a similar market to what we saw in 2023, barring some significant negative factor (that) could weigh the market down," he said. "Our current forecast on the year has activity dropping 0.7% year over year in 2024 but we ultimately expect activity to finish somewhere in the range of plus or minus 1.0%. If that holds then we can expect improving year-over-year numbers on Part 135 activity and a calmer fractional market, after a robust 2023."
Kuhn said the analysts at ARGUS expect the Part 91 sector to perform similarly to last year.
"Overall, we currently see four positive months in 2024 - January, February, July and August - and eight negative months compared to 2023."GLOBALAIR.COM YEAR IN REVIEW:The GlobalAir.com list of the top aviation news stories and trends of 2023 These were the most-read aviation news stories on GlobalAir.com in 2023 The top developments for aircraft in private aviation in 2023 Here are the wildest GlobalAir.com aviation news stories of 2023For his resolution, Jim Donath of Donath Aircraft Services said he will pursue ever-higher standards in process and deliverables for his clients."I predict that in 2024 the only lingering market factors from the pandemic will be supply chain issues and labor shortages," he told GlobalAir.com. "Otherwise, the market will continue to normalize. By that, I mean the market will be shaped by how prospective buyers view economic and geo-political conditions. Right now, I'm mildly optimistic. We'll likely see a soft start in early Q1, as is the seasonal norm. After that, a continuing stream of inventory into the market should be met by relatively healthy demand.
"Should the domestic economy continue toward a soft landing, aircraft values will continue to revert toward historic depreciation rates. This should encourage buyers who have been waiting on the sideline for a significant price correction to step into the market."
Tim Barber of Duncan Aviation offered a cautious caveat when giving his predictions for the year.
"I didn't buy Apple at $22 a share and I didn't buy launch Bitcoin, so I'm probably not the best person to ask," he joked. "However, inventory will continue to rise throughout 2024 and we'll probably get to something akin to the market as it was pre-pandemic by the end of the year. At the same time, values will continue to fall and are likely to come back in line with pre-pandemic levels by Q4."
He also expects the frequency and locations of protests against private jet travel to increase.
"Further criminal damage will be caused to aviation assets and eventually the law enforcers will have no option to take this matter seriously and to start to provide some deterrent," he said. "With many national elections taking place in 2024, including the US and the UK, there will be some uncertainty of direction but it's looking likely that the US will remain a bizav-friendly market whereas here in Europe hostility from a small, (misinformed) minority, will continue to be a problem. For some time now I have believed that we actually need a country to ban bizav and then we can all watch their GDP fall (and) their unemployment rise as inward investment falls away. I'd give it around three years before the decision is reversed and then we can all get back to business."
Sarah Keates, founder of aviation-centric PR firm WOI, is optimistic about the year ahead but still expects some headwinds.
"The sharing economy, sustainability, and values-led companies will continue to thrive," she said. "Traditional business models and practices will be challenged by talent shortages and customer preferences, and pressure, towards ethical, cleaner approaches. Transparency and clear values will be important for businesses to attract and retain talent."
Mike McCracken, president and founder of Hawkeye Aircraft Acquisitions, an aircraft acquisition consulting company, said the aircraft market metrics of 2023 will need to be watched to get a handle on what 2024 might bring, as some of the people he has talked to are tiptoeing into the new year cautiously.
"We saw the first 8 months retail transactions the slowest since 2012. We are watching that very closely to see what kind of year-end bump we see," he said. "We are seeing inventory creep up to more normal levels and pricing adjust down to realistic pricing. New aircraft backlogs are helping keep the late model and thus the used market healthy. We will know a great deal about the health of the market in late January or early February when the smoke clears from the year-end deals. If these numbers are below 2019 transactions we should buckle up for a tough 2024 in my opinion."
Finally, NBAA President Ed Bolen expects there to be challenges and opportunities in Washington, DC, for business aviation.
Among the things the NBAA will be watching include how Congress addresses the FAA and its new leader, Michael Whitaker, who "starts the year with NBAA's full support," Bolen shared with members in his 2024 outlook.
"On another front, opposition to business aviation based on misperceptions about climate change is on the rise and will require a stepped-up response in the coming year," he wrote. "Setting the record straight on the industry's sustainability leadership with key audiences - including policymakers and media outlets - is the aim of the recently launched industry campaign 'Climbing. Fast.,' which showcases business aviation's societal benefits, highlights workforce opportunities and encourages innovations in sustainability. In the coming year, it will be a top priority for NBAA and the campaign's other stakeholder groups to put a sharp focus on the industry's sustainability leadership."