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If a Christmas tree falls quietly enough, will anyone decorate it in time to sing Silent Night? And with that butchered colloquialism out of the way, we can box up our winter holiday puns for the season.
So what does a falling tree have to do with aviation? In this case, we are looking at the business aircraft flight activity for December 2023 from our good friends at ARGUS Analytics and their TRAQPak report.
While holiday travel set a record for commercial air traffic in the U.S. this year, the private aviation side continued its trend in the wake of what had been a blistering post-pandemic run - the number of flights quietly falling.
Globally in December, bizav flights dipped 2.7% from 2022 and 4.9% from November. North America produced even sharper drops, down 3% year to year and 5.3% month to month.Travis Kuhn, vice president of software for ARGUS, said those numbers fell short of expectations, particularly for flights during the week between Christmas and New Year's Day. Christmas week activity was down 4.0% from what they had expected.
"Overall, it seemed to cap off a relatively quiet year for activity," he said. "We end 2023 with a very strong fractional market, a relatively stable Part 91 market and an overall decline in the Part 135 market. We'll be watching those markets closely in 2024, along with small cabin and turboprop aircraft which saw a year of consistent declines."
His team had been counting on the holidays to produce a 0.5% increase from 2022 for North America in December.
PREVIOUS STORY: Business flights stayed stable in November with changes in season and by regionOperational categories delivered a mixed bag, with fractional activity standing out as the only gainer, posting an 11.8% increase year over year. Part 91 activity dipped by 1.3%, and Part 135 activity experienced a more significant decline of 10% due to ongoing challenges in the light jet and turboprop markets.
Large cabin jets were the only aircraft category to register an increase, up by 0.9%, while mid-size cabin aircraft declined by 1.2%, and small cabin aircraft flights were down by 2.7%. The turboprop market reported the most significant decrease in activity, finishing 7.2% lower.
The big winner of the year was the fractional large-cabin market, soaring by 21%.
With many taking a winter break during the holidays, corporate travel is usually lower in December than in November. As such, December's business aviation flight activity saw an anticipated decrease of 5.3% compared to the prior month. Part 135 activity was the only operational category with a monthly increase, up by 1.0%. In contrast, fractional activity decreased by 5.9%, and Part 91 activity dropped by 10%.
Among the FAA regions, 7 out of 8 reported a monthly decrease, with the Pacific Northwest being the only exception, likely influenced by ski and holiday travel. The New England region reported the most substantial monthly drop, declining by 11%.
For Canada and the Caribbean, they showed a 2.5% month-over-month increase from November, driven by a winter shift in demand for flying in the Caribbean. However, December fell short of expectations, finishing just below 280,000 flights for the month.
European flight activity remained down, wrapping up December with an 8.8% decrease. ARGUS analysts note that the continent is still in the lightest travel period of the year, lasting until March, but they say signs of pre-COVID activity patterns are beginning to emerge.
One thing that worked out for aviation in the Christmas season was the weather.From Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023, to Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, the cancellation rate for US flights was just 0.8% percent, according to the federal Department of Transportation, despite a record number of passengers boarding some 16.3 million flights. The cancellation rate during the same period in 2022 was 8.2%.
Looking ahead, TRAQPak analysts estimate a 0.5% decrease in overall North American flight activity year over year in January 2024. European activity is projected to decrease by 7.1%.