Forecast International says fractional fleets now drive jet demand

Forecast International's latest market outlook argues that fractional operators and fleet programs now dominate much of the industry's forward demand. The company is projecting 751 business jet deliveries in 2026, growing to 819 deliveries by 2029 before dropping to 741 in 2030 under its blended forecast methodology. The forecast assumes continued growth but also acknowledges the possibility of a significant industry correction.One of the most noteworthy elements of the report is the observation that large fleet operators increasingly influence new-aircraft orders, and by extension future used-aircraft inventory. Orders associated with operators such as NetJets, Flexjet, and Vista Global are a large part of the order book in several aircraft lines. The Embraer Praetor 500/600 line reportedly carries more than 400 potential sales tied to NetJets and Flexjet, while the Bombardier Challenger 3500 and Global 6500/8000 have drawn nearly 300 orders from NetJets, Bond and Vista Global.Forecast International believes new-aircraft pricing should remain firm through 2027-2028, while sellers' prospects split by segment. Heavy jets have outperformed every other segment, so heavy jet sellers should continue to see a seller's market. Light jet sellers may not see a materially better window before the 2030 correction in Forecast International's model.Why it mattersFractional operators are gaining influence over the future resale market. When a small number of organizations control large portions of aircraft deliveries, they eventually influence large portions of future inventory as well. Rather than aircraft entering the market primarily through individual ownership decisions, future supply may increasingly be driven by fleet-replacement strategies, utilization targets, and capital-allocation decisions made by a handful of major operators. For owners and brokers, those moves are the signal to watch.