Five-Year Forecast Confirms It: Heavy Jets Are Pulling Away From the Rest of the Market

BrokerBeat's September report revealed that while used mid-sized jets are taking a median of 134 days to sell, large-cabin jets are out in front, selling at a median of 78 days on the market with less than 6.5 months' worth of supply sitting unsold. Prices for these jets are up 13% year-over-year even as asking prices for those same jets fell. Global Jet Capital's (GJC) model reveals that between 2026 and 2030, pre-owned heavy jets are expected to grow at 4.9% annually. By 2030, heavy jets are expected to make up 33.6% of new deliveries (up from 30.2% over the last five), while the pre-owned transactions are expected to make up 28.2% (up from 25.5% over the last five). This means that approximately one of three jets delivered by 2030 will be a heavy jet, while more than one of four pre-owned transactions will involve a heavy jet, too. There is a strong case to be made that one segment of business jets is clearly outperforming the rest of today's market. And it is expected to do so over the next five years as well. Is this a Structural or? a Temporary Squeeze?The gap between heavy jets and the middle of the market widens further when you look at what's essentially flat. From 2026 to 2030, GJC's pre-owned tables show light and medium jet transactions barely moving, as they are up about 1% and 2% respectively over the entire five-year stretch. Pre-owned heavy transactions, on the other hand, grow better than 23% over the same window. Very light jets are the market's other bright spot, up nearly 20%. The middle of the market isn't shrinking, but it's standing still while both ends of the size spectrum move.In light of all these numbers, one has to wonder if this is a short-term shortage or a lasting shift? For a forecast that runs half a decade, one would expect a short-term shortage to show signs of easing. This one does not. Global Jet Capital's year-by-year numbers reveal that new heavy jet production has increased from 221 aircraft in 2024 to 269 in 2025 — the largest in any category. After that first jump, new heavy jet production does level off some, growing at a gentler pace through 2030.Pre-owned heavy jet transactions climbed from 627 in 2024 to 745 in 2025. The annual gains of pre-owned heavy jet transactions keep getting bigger for four straight years after that, before easing slightly in the final year of the forecast. If this were just a temporary crunch, we'd expect the fade to show up in these data sets.In addition, the inventory across the whole industry is already thinner than it's been in years. GJC puts available inventory at 6.6% of the active fleet, well below the roughly 10% historical average the industry has run at over a longer cycle. The tightening has been slim but persistent — from 6.7% in Q1 to 6.6% in Q2. Backlog across major business jet manufacturers has increased by 12.8% over six months, reaching $66.8 billion. Manufacturers already have more orders than they can build. Nevertheless, heavy jets just keep pulling further ahead, suggesting this might be the new normal. GJC's model projects deliveries of 4,533 new business jets between 2026 and 2030, with an annual growth rate of 2.4%. These jets are expected to be worth a combined $130.7 billion. Over the same time, pre-owned transactions are expected to reach 15,158 units, grow 2.9% per year, and be valued at $116.8 billion.One has to note that GJC's outlook reflects projections, not commitments. The economic data behind it comes from Oxford Economics, based on its "analysis of current and expected future market conditions". These five-year aviation forecasts are exposed to the same shocks such as fuel, financing conditions, change in the geopolitical condition, a demand shift at the OEM level, a change in environmental regulations, economic recession, among other things. Where the Growth Is ConcentratedAccording to GJC's forecast, North America is expected to remain the largest business jet market by far, accounting for approximately three-fourths of all transactions through 2030. But the more interesting shift is that Latin America is expected to overtake Europe as the second-largest market. We also have to note that heavy jets are also likely to represent a much larger share of the total money spent on new aircraft as they cost much more than light and midsize jets. As GJC does not provide a breakdown of spending by aircraft size, the exact figure is unknown. But what is known is this: heavy jets will have a bigger financial impact on the market than their one-third share of deliveries suggests.Implications for Buyers and SellersIf you want to sell a heavy jet that is in good shape, you can be assured that demand for it isn't going away, at least through the end of 2030 (as GJC's forecast suggests). That's a reason to hedge your bets. If you're buying, there's no time like the present as the numbers say the market probably won't loosen up on its own anytime soon.