Retail aviation fuel saw slight relief through July, though high prices persist overall

Who doesn't love a game of red light, green light?Well, it's a bit less fun when it takes place Squid Game-style in the Strait of Hormuz. The memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran deteriorated almost immediately, though not before delivering a brief respite from the elevated prices that all points in the supply chain have been absorbing for months. At present, the situation is reliant on knee-jerk fluctuations caused by diplomatic conversations (or less-diplomatic destruction).On the surface, the U.S. and Iran continue to trade fire. Iran remains determined to enforce passage fees through the strait, and the U.S. still disagrees. Opposed to Iran's control of the strait, Oman has proposed a Gulf-backed compromise modeled after the Strait of Malacca's voluntary fee structure. Under this framework, ships would be asked to contribute to navigation and safety operations, and Iran would not have sole administrative control. Don't get your hopes up - the U.S. has already rejected this, reiterating that the strait is an international waterway that should remain free of fees or single-state management. The core dispute remains unresolved.Is the strait open? Technically yes, but you'll be wading through an active warzone with a target on your back. Maritime intelligence firm Windward rates the strait's operational risk as critical, with the strait effectively closed to routine commercial shipping. Windward data counted 20 ships that crossed the strait on July 29 (10 in, 10 out), with 5 of those ships operating dark by shutting down transponders and lights. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that American military escorts are helping oil and gas tankers move through the strait.Compounding this issue, the Houthis - an Iran-aligned militant group based in Yemen - have declared a blockade of Saudi Red Sea ports on July 20, causing ships to reroute in response. With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea now disrupted, there is no clean route out of the Gulf. This is not an ideal situation for global energy and trade markets.100LL AvGasStrictly looking at national averages month over month, 100LL appears to have plateaued. Averaging $7.46 in June, the national average for 100LL has dropped just one cent in July to $7.45.As is often the case, a granular analysis tells a far less linear story. The wholesale dip that followed the MOU ceasefire pushed prices down significantly at the start of July. However, that relief is already being reversed. Current 100LL rates are already higher than they were 30 days ago (with the exception of Alaska decreasing by 18 cents and the Northwest Mountain staying constant). Sorry, New England - you boast the largest 100LL increase in that timeframe at 11 cents.Moral of the story? Time your resupply after a strategic 'diplomatic conversation' in the Middle East. I have a feeling we'll be getting friendly with these sporadic respites for a while yet.Jet AJet A offered some relief through July as well, with the national average dropping from $7.74 to $7.52. That said, similar to 100LL, Jet A is once again on the upswing.Without exception, Jet A has risen over the past 30 days in every single FAA region. The average increase was 27 cents, with a standard deviation of 13 cents. For context, the highest recorded monthly national average GlobalAir.com recorded prior to 2026 for Jet A was $7.25 in July 2022. Even accounting for inflation, this crisis has sustained aviation retail prices at unprecedented levels - a point explored in Abby's Ramp Ramble - Fuel Price Crisis.The Jet A trade is considerably more complex than 100LL given both its scale and role across corporate and commercial aviation. These operators are often more diversified in their ability to absorb elevated rates. However, Spirit Airlines is proof that even more elastic organizations have their limits, citing the fuel price spike as a final blow toward full shutdown.Sustainable Aviation FuelMaking almost too much sense, SAF continues to mirror Jet A, dropping from a national average of $9.76 for June to $9.57 for July, offering operators utilizing retail SAF similar relief at the pump.In line with the trends we've seen in 100LL and Jet A, SAF has increased over the last 30 days for every FAA region with enough FBO reports to form a substantial average (New England, Eastern, Southern, Great Lakes, Southwest, Northwest Mountain and Western Pacific).Ironically, this crisis makes the case for shifting to SAF stronger while simultaneously exposing the current supply chain's inefficiencies. Primarily derived from cooking oil and animal fats, pure SAF saw price increases not driven by crude oil disruptions, but by competition for feedstock. As conventional prices surged, biofuel industries increased feedstock demand to serve road transport markets seeking cheaper alternatives. A fully established SAF network wouldn't have prevented the Hormuz crisis, but a wider network could have meaningfully reduced aviation's exposure to it.Most FBO managers will care little about SAF until they see actionable steps regarding regulation or demand. In fact, most FBOs providing SAF are selling a blended product rather than pure SAF, making retail prices more subject to crude disruptions. The prices posted by FBOs on GlobalAir.com reflect that mixture, which along with wholesale differentials, also explains why SAF follows Jet A so closely in our dataset.The Big PictureThe situation remains unstable. Wholesale fluctuations have been sporadic and significant, but the situation at large is keeping margins thin. Negotiations continue to fall through and bombs continue to drop. After a dip following the brief U.S.-Iran MOU, average fuel prices by FAA region jumped right back up, though measures to get crude oil through the strait could offer another supply boon at any moment. Is the end in sight? Ask again later.Top Performing AirportsIt is no surprise that Wittman Regional (KOSH) ended up in our top airport list through July. Through the annual GlobalAir.com Oshkosh Specials Page, we were able to route thousands of transient pilots to over 130 FBOs offering unique fuel discounts or special offerings.Pilots and flight departments use the GlobalAir.com Airport Resource Center to quickly research the entirety of their trip. From FBO fuel and services, pilot information, hotels and rentals, restaurants, airport businesses and everything in between, aviation professionals can access and review the best options all in one place.GlobalAir.com's top three most visited airport pages in the past 30 days were:Salt Lake City International Airport (KSLC) in Salt Lake City, UTWittman Regional Airport (KOSH) in Oshkosh, WIMiami Opa Locka Executive Airport (KOPF) in Miami, FLTop Performing FBOsDespite a turbulent fuel market and the Oshkosh flight rush, these FBOs were able to maintain a strong foothold through July.Big news for number one: JAX Executive Jet Center and Sky Harbor at KCRG have consolidated into Sky Harbor North and Sky Harbor South. Operations have not halted, so be sure to fly in next time you get a chance!A special congratulations to Castle andamp; Cooke Aviation (KVNY) and Aero Management (K1B9) for being repeat top-ranked FBOs. Keep up the great work!GlobalAir.com's top three most visited FBO pages in the past 30 days were:Sky Harbor North @ CRGCastle andamp; Cooke Aviation @ VNYAero Management, LLC @ 1B9Congratulations to our top airports and FBOs, and safe fueling everyone!GlobalAir.com's Airport Resource Center and fuel data analyses are based on the prices of over 3,200 Fixed Base Operators (FBOs), reported directly by the FBO to GlobalAir.com. We do not accept fuel price updates from third parties. We hide/exclude FBOs that do not provide a price update or verification at least every 30 days to maintain pilot trust and database accuracy.As a result, GlobalAir.com offers accurate and up-to-date aviation fuel information. You can review live average fuel prices by FAA region by clicking here. Join us next month for another fuel data analysis and to find out which airports and FBOs have the highest performance on GlobalAir.com's Airport Resource Center. Learn more about GlobalAir.com's aviation fuel data by contacting Abigail Sheets at [email protected], or contribute to the discussion by leaving a comment on this article.