NOAA announces new weather forecast system to improve aircraft safety

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Monday that it is launching a new weather forecast system that will improve predictions of aircraft icing and turbulence. The new Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS) will cover the contiguous United States and is supposed to generate more detailed forecasts of evolving icing and turbulence risks. Pilots will be able to receive real-time intelligence about changing weather conditions in their flight path. "This is the culmination of extensive research and years of work that gets right to the heart of our aviation forecast mission: supporting passenger safety and the aviation industry," said Terra Ladwig, acting chief of NOAA Global Systems Laboratory's Assimilation, Verification, and Innovation Division. The system was developed using funding from the FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program and is based on the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), which provides an hourly forecast update on a 1.8-mile surface grid with 50 vertical slices through the atmosphere. NOAA claims that it ingests three-dimensional radar data every 15 minutes. RELATED STORIES: Why One Winter Storm Can Shut Down the Entire Country's Airspace Final report blames 2023 Michigan crash on ice and snow on the wings German institute researches removing ice from aircraft wings with vibrations Previously, icing and turbulence guidance were generated from hourly updating numerical weather models on a coarser 8-mile grid. NOAA states that icing and turbulence forecast updates will be more precise using DAFS. It will provide forecasts of in-flight icing probability, severity and supercooled large droplet conditions. It also improves the prediction of several types of turbulence, including low-level, clear-air, mountain waves and within clouds. "The DAFS is another example of how NOAA continuously works with the FAA to deliver the most accurate, timely and useful aviation forecasts," said Joshua Scheck, aviation support branch chief for NOAA's Aviation Weather Center. "Improving prediction of turbulence and icing will strengthen NOAA's ability to provide critical flight safety information to the FAA and the aviation community."