IATA releases Long‑Term Demand Projections report for air travel

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) for air travel on Tuesday. The report shows that global air passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050. The mid-range scenario predicts 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs). This prediction is based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1%. The high-growth scenario with a CAGR of 3.3% forecasts passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050. The lower-growth scenario with 2.9% CAGR would see passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050. Growth is expected to be uneven across regions. Asia-Pacific and Africa are expected to grow quickly, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Europe and North America are projected to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8%. "The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century," said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. "That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world. Our Long-Term Demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long-term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition." RELATED STORIES: IATA releases 2025 Annual Safety Report on aircraft accidents IATA renews CFM contract to support MRO service market competition The Safest Seats On A Plane To Survive A Deadly Accident IATA states that the different scenarios are based on models of long-term economic growth, populations, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition and air transport supply-side capacity development. The association claims its models have an average prediction accuracy of 98% at the industry level. Its projection performance has been validated against historical data and the growth rate is moderating gradually. The average annual growth slowed from 6.1% CAGR between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5% CAGR between 1998 and 2024, so IATA predicts further slowing to 3.1% CAGR for 2024-2050. It claims this is a sign of market maturity, as passenger numbers continue to rise.