The FAA's Real ATC Problem: How certification holds the key to hiring woes

Photo by Rasmus Lauridsen / UnsplashIn August, the FAA published The Air Traffic Control Workforce Plan for 2025 to 2028, where the projections show a real gap between hiring and actual controller staffing. In its plan, the FAA aims to hire 8,900 new controllers through 2028. At the same time, it foresees 6,872 departures in that period, which includes 3,206 new hires who drop out during Academy training and 804 who fail on-the-job developmental training. These are projections; real numbers in 2024 show the agency recruited 1,811 controllers (slightly above the 1,800 goal), but lost 1,400 that year (including academy and developmental training losses), which is a net gain of only 411. In short, the "front door" hiring surge is largely offset by "back door" losses. Note: An FAA-certified controller is called a Certified Professional Controller (CPC), meaning fully qualified on-position.These numbers highlight a bottleneck that's less about hiring and more about certification. A recent National Academies report found that, without major changes, a newly hired trainee takes on at least 4.8 years to reach CPC status at a level 10-12 En Route center and at least 5.5 years to reach CPC status needed at the largest terminal facilities (which often depend on transfers after initial certification). In practical terms this means hires made in 2025 don't translate into fully certified controllers until roughly 2030-31. Meanwhile, analysis shows the operational impact concentrates at the busiest locations, where nineteen of the FAA's largest facilities are more than 15% below staffing targets, yet they serve about 27% of commercial operations and account for about 40% of system delays. This shows that closing the gap requires more hires and a much higher throughput, which is the speed that hires become certified CPCs. Leaky Hiring Pipeline Compounding the timeline issue, the recruiting pipeline "leaks" at every stage. For example, a National Academies report shows that, in 2024, the FAA saw 12,859 total applicants, including CTI school graduates and the general public. Of those, 8,625 (67%) passed initial screening to take the FAA's aptitude test called the Air Traffic Skills Assessment (ATSA), but only 5,329 actually took the exam. Only 41% of test-takers (2,184 individuals) scored "well-qualified" (85%+ on the ATSA), meaning roughly 17% of original applicants remained eligible. In the end, 1,811 were hired (about 14% of the 12,859 applicants). Put simply, interest in controller careers is ample, but conversion from applicant to hire to certified controller is very low. Each failure step demands resources (testing seats, clearances, training slots) but yields no CPC. Even now, the FAA plans for many trainees not to finish, explicitly projecting 3,206 Academy training losses and 804 developmental training losses through 2028. This conversion-rate problem, not a lack of applicants, is the real bottleneck. It cannot be fixed by more ads or higher salaries alone, because the limits are in selection and training capacity, not demand. The Enhanced AT-CTI Solution The FAA's Enhanced Air Traffic - Collegiate Training Initiative (Enhanced AT-CTI) is presenting itself as a true solution to the throughput constraint by distributing early training. Under this initiative, accredited colleges and universities teach the FAA's ATC curricula under FAA oversight. Graduates from approved Enhanced AT-CTI programs (with FAA-aligned coursework and instructors) can then begin facility training immediately upon graduation, without attending the FAA Academy, if selected and hired as Air Traffic Control Specialists. Importantly, with these programs FAA standards remain fully in force, including required testing, oversight, and participation requirements, and graduates still must meet FAA medical and security requirements.In practice, Enhanced AT-CTI means some of the Academy's work moves into the field. This increases training capacity upstream without lowering standards. The FAA itself has noted that Academy throughput is practically capped by instructor staffing, and major tower/center facilities can only absorb limited numbers of new trainees at a time. By contrast, accredited colleges (once approved) can scale their classes, adding training slots regionally. Trainees arrive better-prepared and more uniform in skill, potentially reducing retesting or remedial training later on. As of July 2, 2025, the FAA announced seven schools had signed agreements to become the first Enhanced AT-CTI schools.Simulation and Other Throughput Tools The FAA has deployed Tower Simulation Systems (TSS) at major airports, allowing trainees to practice in realistic virtual towers. There are already 111 simulators at 95 facilities nationwide. These simulators demonstrably speed learning, a 2021 FAA study found that new tower controllers trained with TSS certified 27% faster than with traditional methods, and experienced controllers certified 21% faster when training at a new tower facility. Congress has recognized this and produced a pending legislation that would authorize $20?million per year, through 2031, to procure and install more tower simulators, expanding simulator access across the system. Other tools also improve throughput, for example, expanding the pool of eligible instructors and streamlining security/medical clearance processes. Recent FAA initiatives accelerated hiring by cutting steps (from an 8-step to a 5-step process) and prioritizing cleared candidates, but the biggest gains come from shifting training. Essentially, anything that shortens the time to CPC (be it simulators or extended classroom training) multiplies the effect of each hire. Legislative Momentum Recognizing these insights, Congress has advanced bipartisan legislation to scale Enhanced AT-CTI. The Air Traffic Control Workforce Development Act of 2025, Senate S.697 and House H.R.3270, codifies and funds Enhanced AT-CTI. It authorizes a new Enhanced AT-CTI grant program at $20?million per year from 2026 to 2031. Eligible uses include curriculum development and purchase of faculty, simulators, and other training supplies, exactly the resources these schools need.The same bills also address the simulator and incentive side, as they authorize $20?million per year (2026-2031) specifically for procuring/placing Tower Simulation Systems at facilities, and they require DOT/FAA to establish incentive programs for controller training and retention. In effect, Congress is matching policy to physics to expand training slots and speed up certification. This is a case of the legislative agenda dovetailing directly with the operational bottlenecks identified by FAA and the National Academies. Measuring True Progress To ensure impact, we should track outcomes, not just hires. Useful quarterly metrics would include applicant?hire conversion, hire?CPC certification rates, and median months-to-CPC (by facility type). Those figures will reveal whether reforms like Enhanced AT-CTI and new simulators are working. Funding and approvals should then follow results. For example, increase funding for schools whose graduates certify faster and drop out less, and reevaluate those that do not. The lesson is that hiring thousands of new controllers alone will not solve the shortage if the training pipeline remains fixed. Enhanced AT-CTI and simulator-driven training are the best levers to "bend the curve" without watering down standards. Congress has crafted the mechanism to support this; now it needs to provide the funds and insist on data-driven accountability.