SAF production doubled this year, projections for 2024 fall short of rising demands

Image from IATASustainability continues to be a growing sect of the aviation industry, with 2023 seeing double the volume of 2022 and numerous first-ever milestones in flight and technology. The International Air Transport Association projects SAF production to triple in 2024. With a high demand for alternative fuels, the increase in SAF production would only account for half of the industry's fuel needs. IATA reports that in 2023 the SAF volumes reached over 600 million liters (0.5 metric tons) or nearly 159 million gallons. This was double the 300 million liters produced in 2022. The SAF produced accounted for just three percent of all renewable fuels produced, with 97 percent of renewable fuel production going to other sectors. In 2024 the SAF production is expected to triple to 1.875 billion liters (1.5 metric tons) or over 495 million gallons. "The doubling of SAF production in 2023 was encouraging as is the expected tripling of production expected in 2024," IATA Director General Willie Walsh said. "But even with that impressive growth, SAF as a portion of all renewable fuel production will only grow from 3% this year to 6% in 2024. This allocation limits SAF supply and keeps prices high." Despite tripling production, the 1.875 billion liters would only account for 0.53 percent of aviation's fuel need and six percent of renewable fuel capacity. IATA reports that the small percentage of SAF output as a proportion of overall renewable fuel is due to the new capacity online in 2023 being allocated to other renewable fuels. "Aviation needs between 25% and 30% of renewable fuel production capacity for SAF," Walsh said. "At those levels, aviation will be on the trajectory needed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Until such levels are reached, we will continue missing huge opportunities to advance aviation's decarbonization. It is government policy that will make the difference. Governments must prioritize policies to incentivize the scaling-up of SAF production and to diversify feedstocks with those available locally." The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organization agreed to a global framework to promote SAF production for the fuels used in international aviation to be five percent less carbon-intensive by 2030. Reaching this goal would mean about 17.5 billion liters of SAF would need to be produced. "Governments want aviation to be net zero by 2050," Walsh said. "Having set an interim target in the CAAF process they now need to deliver policy measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF production." IATA stressed that demand is not the issue, with every drop of SAF produced bought and used. In 2023, SAF added $756 million to a record-high fuel bill. The demand can be seen across different sectors of the industry. At least 43 airlines have committed to the use of roughly 16.25 billion liters of SAF in 2030 and these types of announcements are coming more regularly. The challenge facing SAF production is meeting the demand. Projections are for more than 78 billion liters of renewable fuels to be produced in 2029. IATA stated that governments must set a policy framework to incentivize renewable fuel producers to allocate about 25 to 30 percent of output to SAF to meet the goals of CAAF/3, existing regional and national policies as well as airline commitments. According to IATA, incentivizing production should support the acceleration of investments in SAF by traditional oil companies, guarantee that renewable fuel production incentives will encourage sufficient SAF quantities, focus stakeholders on the regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production, identify and prioritize high potential production products for investment support, and deliver a global SAF accounting framework. Currently, about 85 percent of SAF coming on line in the coming five years are using Hydrotreatment production technology, known as HEFA, which relies on inedible animal fats (tallow), used cooking oil and industrial grease as a feedstock. With a high demand to meet and limited quantities of feedstock, SAF production needs to be diversified to increase production through varying means. SAF production can be increased by finding other feedstock methods or diversifying production with certified pathways, notably Alcohol-to-Jet and Fischer-Tropsch, which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue. Promoting investments in and fast-tracking certification for SAF production pathways in development will open up new opportunities. More can be done to identify potential feedstocks to utilize SAF technologies to provide diverse and regional options including other benefits like environmental restoration.RELATED STORIES:Pratt andamp; Whitney, Leonardo Helicopters achieve flight on 100 percent SAFVirgin Atlantic flies world's first transatlantic commercial flight on 100 percent SAFGulfstream flies world's first trans-Atlantic flight on 100 percent SAF in G600VoltAero completes world's first electric-hybrid flight on 100 percent SAF Aviation saw numerous advancements in sustainability in 2023. There were multiple first-ever flights on 100 percent SAF. In September, VoltAero flew its proprietary electric-hybrid powertrain for the Cassio family of aircraft with 100 percent SAF, the world's first flight of an electric-hybrid aircraft running on sustainable fuel. On Nov. 19 Gulfstream completed the world's first transatlantic flight using 100 percent SAF in a Gulfstream G600. On Nov. 28 Virgin Atlantic embarked on a historic journey, taking off from John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in a Boeing 787 Dreamliner using 100 percent SAF in the world's first commercial flight across the Atlantic using sustainable fuel. In December, Pratt andamp; Whitney Canada and Leonardo Helicopters announced the completion of the first successful flight of an AW139 using 100 percent SAF in both PT6C-67C engines.MORE RELATED STORIES:Embraer completes Phenom 300E, Praetor 600 flight tests on 100% SAFRolls-Royce completes SAF engine compatibility testing programRolls-Royce completes 100 percent SAF testing on BizAv enginesLas Vegas airports offering SAF for NBAA-BACEHoneywell advances Anthem flight deck, ethanol to jet fuel SAF production Embraer successfully tested the Phenom 300E and Praetor 600 on 100 percent neat SAF in October. Rolls-Royce announced in October it completed a series of tests using 100 percent SAF on the next-gen business aviation engines, the Pearl 15 and Pearl 10X. By November, Rolls-Royce announced it completed its 100 percent SAF compatibility program, proving there were no engine barriers to the use of fully sustainable fuel. In May, Honeywell celebrated advancements with its Anthem Integrated Flight Deck as well as its Ethanol to Jet SAF production technology. From new startups, research funding, first flights, new production hubs and new technology - SAF is integrating into the industry rapidly. At the NBAA-BACE convention in October, Las Vegas airports served SAF to attendees with more than double the amount that was at previous events, showing a commitment to sustainability within the business aviation industry. The aviation industry as a whole is continually moving forward with sustainable ideas and changes, working to create a greener global industry. IATA's report has proven that the demand for SAF is continuing to grow and the challenge is meeting that need in the coming years.